Research articles.
My perspective on the forces behind market moves. Read the analysis, follow the sources, and explore interactive tools in selected articles.
12 published articles · Oldest first
The FOMC Reaction: Decision, Surprise, and the Rate Path
Separate the policy decision from what investors expected and the outlook markets priced next.
READ NOTE 001 ↗Hedging a Semiconductor-Heavy Portfolio
How concentration, index exposure and different hedges change the risks in a semiconductor-heavy portfolio.
READ NOTE 002 ↗Who Is Financing the AI Boom?
Follow the money through cash flow, credit and the power grid, and ask who earns a return on AI.
READ NOTE 003 ↗Meta’s Muse Rally: From Story to Earnings
Read the research, compare past results, and build your own earnings case with the interactive lab.
READ NOTE 004 ↗When Oil Raises the Cost of Money
Follow Treasury yields, credit spreads and geopolitical risk through the cost of borrowing.
READ NOTE 005 ↗Q3 Earnings and the Fed: Expectations Drive the Market.
My perspective on the October Fed decision, Q3 earnings across sectors, and what markets have priced in.
READ NOTE 006 ↗When Treasuries Stop Acting Like a Safe Haven
A reliable payment is not a stable price. Explore rate risk, liquidity and the purpose of a Treasury position.
READ NOTE 007 ↗A Good Company Can Still Be a Bad Investment
Earnings can grow while a stock falls. Why business quality and the price paid are different questions.
READ NOTE 008 ↗The Next Leg of the Equity Market
My 6–12 month equity view: earnings delivery, broader leadership and the Fed’s valuation hurdle.
READ NOTE 009 ↗A Pause, Not a Pivot
Warsh’s message, the split Treasury reaction and what the October hold means for equities.
READ NOTE 010 ↗Is the Market Falling—or Just Big Tech?
October’s index divergence, concentration and three tests for rotation versus broader market stress.
READ NOTE 011 ↗When the AI Trade Broke
What drove the November 5 selloff, why chips fell hardest, and what Friday’s bounce didn’t fix.
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The Dollar as a Global Tightening Tool
How dollar strength reaches global liquidity, commodities and overseas earnings.